Reuel Marc Gerecht

Reuel Marc Gerecht, a former Middle East specialist at the CIA's directorate of operations, is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), where he writes on Middle East issues, terrorism, and intelligence. Gerecht served as director of the Middle East Initiative at the now-defunct neoconservative group Project for the New American Century (PNAC), where he was also a senior fellow. A staunch supporter of the interventionist policies of the George W. Bush administration’s "war on terror," Gerecht was a vocal a supporter of the U.S. invasion of Iraq and has continued to promote a hard line on Iran, despite some recent nods to diplomacy.

On Iraq and Iran

In the run-up to the Iraq invasion, Gerecht argued for targeting both Iran and Iraq for regime change. In February 2002 he wrote in the Weekly Standard that, "If President Bush follows his own logic and compels his administration to follow him against Iraq and Iran, then he will sow the seeds for a new, safer, more liberal order in the Middle East. If America can hold its ground, two Muslim peoples who were badly burned by the 20th century just might lead the way for their religious brethren to a more civil society, where the basic human decency their countries knew a century ago could return."

Gerecht argued that a U.S.-led invasion of Iraq would stir a democratic revolution in Iran, an idea that proved wildly incorrect. In a 2002 AEI policy brief, he wrote, "An American invasion [of Iraq] could possibly provoke riots in Iran—simultaneous uprisings in major cities that would simply be beyond the scope of regime-loyal, specialized riot-control units. The army or the Revolutionary Guard Corps would have to be pulled into service in large numbers, and that's when things could get interesting.... And if an American invasion doesn't provoke urban unrest, the creation of a democratic Iraq probably will. Iraq's majority Shiite population, who will inevitably lead their country in a democratic state, will start to talk to their Shiite brethren over the Iran-Iraq border."

By early 2008, however, Gerecht, like many other neoconservatives, was pushing a seemingly more nuanced stance toward Iran—likely in response to the November 2007 National Intelligence Estimate, which argued that Tehran halted its efforts to build a nuclear weapon in 2003 (see also, Khody Akhavi, “New Report Shows Tactical Neocon Switch on Iran,” Right Web, February 28, 2008). Perhaps recognizing that U.S. military intervention in Iran was unlikely to occur during Bush’s short remaining time in office, Gerecht argued in a February 20, 2008 New York Times op-ed that the United States must begin “direct, unconditional talks” with the country.

But what might have been mistaken as an argument for diplomacy was revealed as little more than an effort to push for military intervention. “Foreign-policy hawks ought to see such discussions as essential preparation for possible military strikes against clerical Iran’s nuclear facilities,” Gerecht wrote. He furthered his advocacy of diplomacy-as-prelude to military intervention later in the op-ed, writing, “If the mullahs don’t want to negotiate, fine: making the offer is something that must be checked off before the next president could unleash the Air Force and the Navy.”

Even before 9/11 and the presidency of George W. Bush, Gerecht was pushing for regime change in Iran, most notably in a chapter he contributed to the volume Present Dangers: Crisis and Opportunity in American Foreign and Defense Policy, edited by Robert Kagan and William Kristol and published by PNAC in 2000 to serve as a neoconservative foreign policy agenda-setter for the next administration. In his essay, "Iran: Fundamentalism and Reform," Gerecht wrote: "If Washington catches the Iranians in a terrorist act, then the U.S. Navy should retaliate with fury.... If we attack, U.S. armed forces must strike with truly devastating effect against the ruling mullahs and the repressive institutions that maintain them. That is, no cruise missiles at midnight to minimize the body count. The clerics will almost certainly strike back unless Washington uses overwhelming, paralyzing force." He added that if the Israelis "believe they've got the goods on the Iranians—for example, finding evidence linking them to anti-Israel/anti-Jewish bombings abroad—then they should by all means retaliate as directly as possible."

On September 18, 2007, Gerecht participated in the University of Virginia's "National Discussion and Debate Series," in which he and Frederick Kagan argued in favor of keeping troops in Iraq. "You cannot hope to deflate Islamic extremism by losing," Gerecht argued. "The presence of the United States [in Iraq], though aggravating to many a Muslim fundamentalist, is certainly, I would argue, less of a problem than in fact the United States fleeing the country and allowing that country to go tailspin into massive internecine violence." Gerecht argued further that a U.S. withdrawal from Iraq would strengthen Iran's regional position: "Also, what is important to remember, you cannot deal with that country unless you are willing to actually deal with the Iranian threat. Now, what the Iranians are doing inside of Iraq is radicalizing it. ... [T]hey're trying to fuel internecine conflict. If we leave, it is bound to happen" (Miller Center of Public Affairs, September 18, 2007).

Despite the spiraling violence in Iraq in the wake of the U.S. invasion, as well as little evidence pointing to a weakening of the regime in Tehran, Gerecht remained convinced of the possibility that the Iraq War would help bring regime change to Iran.

According to writer Gareth Porter, by late 2007 Gerecht was one of the most aggressive proponents of the argument "that Iraq's Shiites, liberated by U.S. military power, would help subvert the Iranian regime" (see Porter, "The Warpath to Regime Change," Right Web, November 6, 2007).

In September 2005, Gerecht gave testimony to the U.S. House Armed Services Committee during which he argued that diplomacy with Tehran was a dead end. Pointing to the Clinton administration's efforts to "give peace a chance," which Gerecht said had included apologizing for "the supposedly bad behavior of the entire Western world toward Iran for the last 150 years," Gerecht argued: "American apologies in revolutionary clerical eyes mean only one thing—weakness. And showing weakness to power-politic-loving Iranian clerics is not astute. This is 101 in Iranian political culture. Yet I'm willing to bet that most analysts dealing with Iran at the State Department and the CIA probably thought American soul-searching was a good thing, that the political elite in Tehran would respect us more."

Two years later, in a widely quoted September 3, 2007 issue of Newsweek, Gerecht remained on message, writing: "Fears [in Europe about U.S. intentions to designate Iran's Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization] are unfounded ... and rest on several basic misunderstandings. For one thing, the terrorist label is nothing new, and thus will do little to change the current state of play. For another, Iran represents a much greater threat than Europe typically recognizes. It is not a status quo state that favors stability, as most pundits and governments portray it. Iran is, instead, a radical revolutionary force determined to sow chaos beyond its borders. Assuming that normal negotiations can bring it around is, therefore, a grave mistake. The mullahs don't want peace in Iraq—just the opposite. War may come, but not because negotiations break down. The likely trigger is an Iranian provocation."

In March 2007, Gerecht shared his arguments with a European audience during a "U.S.-European Traveling Debate" cosponsored by AEI and the German Marshall Fund, which included stops in Berlin, Brussels, and Paris. Titled "Iran and the Bomb: Will It Get It and What Will It Mean?", the series included Gerecht, the Washington Post's David Ignatius, and several policy figures from European countries. It was aimed at discussing "what courses of action the United States and its allies can take against Iran" in light of Tehran's refusal to halt uranium enrichment activities despite considerable diplomatic pressure.

Gerecht has also favored U.S. support for opposition parties in Iran. In April 2006, Gerecht opined in the Weekly Standard: "[I]t is long overdue for the Bush administration to get serious about building clandestine mechanisms to support Iranians who want to change their regime. This will take time and be brutally difficult. And overt democracy support to Iranians—which is the Bush administration's current game plan—isn't likely to draw many recruits. Most Iranians probably know that this approach is a one-way invitation to Evin prison, which isn't the most effective place for expressing dissent. However we go about assisting the opposition, the prospects for removing the regime before it acquires nuclear weapons are slim" (Weekly Standard, April 24, 2006).

Intelligence and the CIA

Gerecht has played on his CIA experience to argue the inefficacy of the agency, a favorite topic of neoconservatives since the 1970s (see Right Web Profile: Team B Strategic Objectives Panel). In the wake of the resignation of CIA director Porter Goss, Gerecht offered a pessimistic view of the CIA in a Wall Street Journal op-ed. "Regrettably, reform at the CIA is now dead," he wrote, arguing that the Democrats and an anti-Bush press have "put another nail into the clandestine service's coffin by rallying around an organization that desperately needs to be radically deconstructed. However tepidly or lazily Mr. Goss approached his work, he and his abrasive minions ought to be complimented for at least firing somebody. Given the history of the CIA, this is not an insignificant achievement" (Wall Street Journal, May 9, 2006).

Gerecht is a contributor to a 2005 Hoover Institution book on U.S. intelligence titled The Future of American Intelligence. Its lead author is AEI colleague Gary Schmitt, who, like Gerecht, served as a principal of PNAC. Gerecht, who has been a contributing editor at the Weekly Standard and a correspondent for the Atlantic Monthly, is also the author of The Islamic Paradox: Shiite Clerics, Sunni Fundamentalists, and the Coming of Arab Democracy (AEI Press, 2004) and Know Thine Enemy: A Spy's Journey into Revolutionary Iran (1997), which he wrote using the pen name Edward G. Shirley. According to the Washington Post's Vernon Loeb, Gerecht describes a CIA directorate of operations that "had grown intellectually dishonest and become an institution where case officers played a cynical 'numbers game' to get promoted by recruiting large numbers of paid foreign agents, regardless of quality. The 'secrets' these agents produced were often nearly worthless [he wrote] and typical case officers either didn't care or didn't know better, lacking language skills and much grounding in the culture in which they operated. 'America's national security would not be compromised by temporarily shutting down the DO,' Gerecht wrote. 'A Directorate of Operations that produces mostly mediocre intelligence and egregiously stupid coup d'etat schemes against, for example, Saddam Hussein harms the United States abroad.'"

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