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Ray Takeyh


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    • Council on Foreign Relations: Senior Fellow
    • Department of State: Former Senior Adviser on Iran

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Ray Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former official in the Obama State Department who some observers regard as Washington's "go-to" Iran analyst.[1] In his writings and frequent testimonies before Congress, Takeyh provides extravagant characterizations of Iran's nuclear program and advocates for increased pressure on the country. Although often described as "centrist," Takeyh actively works with neoconservatives to promote a hawkish agenda on Iran.

In September 2014, Takeyh coauthored an op-ed in the Washington Post with "pro-Israel" hawk Dennis Ross and former Bush Pentagon official Eric Edelman that argued against any cooperation with Iran in the war against the so-called "Islamic State" group in Iraq and Syria.[2] "The coincidence of mutual opposition to a radical Sunni terrorist group should not blind us to the enduring threat that the mullahs represent," Takeyh and his co-authors said.[3]

Takeyh is a member of the Iran Task Force of the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs' (JINSA), a neoconservative advocacy organization that has been critical of the Obama administration's nuclear negotiations with Iran and pushed for U.S. military intervention in the Middle East.[4]

Takeyh is also a founding member of the Iran Strategy Task Force, an organization created with the collaboration with Freedom House and the Progressive Policy Institute.[5] Another founder of the Task Force, which has been described as aiming to shift "American policy" on Iran "toward a more aggressive focus on democracy," is Josh Block, a former spokesperson for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and current President and CEO of The Israel Project.[6]

In addition to his role at the Council on Foreign Relations, Takeyh is an adjunct professor at Georgetown University. Before joining CFR, Takeyh was a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a spinoff of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, and taught at the National War College, Yale University, and University of California, Berkeley.[7]

Takeyh's spouse is Suzanne Maloney, a widely respected analyst based at the Brookings Institution. In apparent contrast to Takeyh, Maloney has generally supported moderate approaches in relations to Iran. Nevertheless, the two have a track record of jointly authoring op-eds and articles.

Views on Iran

Takeyh has for years taken a stridently alarmist stance with respect to Iran's nuclear program. In 2011, Takeyh wrote in a Washington Post op-ed that "in the next few years Iran will be in the position to detonate a nuclear device,"[8] a view that is at odds with U.S. intelligence estimates, which have reported that Iran ceased nuclear weapons work.

In the same Washington Post article, Takeyh argued that "an aggressive theocracy armed with the bomb will cast a dangerous shadow over the region's political transition, but the consequences will not be limited to the Middle East."[9]

A contributor to the American Conservative has described Takeyh's efforts to portray Iran as an aggressive state that is seeking nuclear weapons as "sheer conjecture" that seems "belied by the generally pragmatic behavior of the Iranian government, which is more interested in regime preservation than in any attempt to bring the rest of the Middle East in line with its views."[10] The article added, "The parallels to the lead-up to Iraq are eerie—weapons of mass destruction, terrorist groups, and mushroom clouds on the horizon. If the Ray Takeyhs of the world get their war it will be a catastrophe for the United States."[11]

Takeyh has also called for covert operations against Iran. In a 2011 paper published in the Washington Quarterly, Takeyh and Iraq war proponent Kenneth Pollack argued for using "the full gamut of political, economic, diplomatic, and intelligence components" to threaten the "regime's hold on power." They contended that "there might be a role for very limited military operations," though they conceded, "any military function would have to be undertaken with the utmost care to avoid an unwanted escalation to war."[12]

The authors called for making "connections with the Green Movement"—a move also championed by a number of hardline neoconservatives like Foundation for Defense of Democracy's Reuel Marc Gerecht—and establishing ties, "overt or covert, with important trade unions and student organizations." They also proposed Washington should explore supporting the "Kurdish, Baluch, Arab, and other opposition groups fighting the regime."[13]

In response, noted international relations expert Steven Walt wrote in his Foreign Policy blog that Takeyh and Pollack's suggestions "are more likely to reinforce Iranian intransigence and make them think harder about the value of some sort of deterrent."[14](For more on the Green Movement, see "Iran's Bizarro 'Green Movement,'" Right Web, March 1, 2011.)

Takeyh has also argued that the 1953 coup against Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mossaddeq, widely attributed by historians and even former CIA operatives as having been a joint operation by American and British intelligence agencies, was largely the work of Iranian clergy.

"The clergy itself played a major role in toppling Mosaddeq," Takeyh said in a Foreign Affairs article from 2014. "It would help greatly if the United States no longer felt the need to keep implicitly apologizing for its role in Mosaddeq's ouster."[15]

Wrote journalist Ali Gharib of Takeyh's revisionism on Mosaddeq: "It seems out of place, amid the heated rhetoric of bombing runs on Iran, to blame the 'mullahs' for sins that the last two Democratic administrations have admitted to."[16]

Nuclear Negotiations

With the breakthrough in nuclear negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 in late 2013 and the signing of an interim nuclear deal, Takeyh firmly entrenched himself with forces opposed to reaching a diplomatic settlement with Iran.

In a May 2013 Washington Post op-ed co-published with fellow hawks Eric Edelman and Dennis Ross, Takeyh called for the White House to "take into account Congress's perspective and heed its warnings."[17]

Responded former CIA analyst Paul Pillar, "Those who want permanent pariahdom for Iran and thus oppose any agreement with the government in Tehran keep looking for ways to use the U.S. Congress to sabotage the deal that has been under negotiation in Vienna and would restrict Iran's nuclear program."[18]

Indeed, in July 2013 Rep. Eliot Engel (D-NY) introduced a letter signed at the time by 342 House members that echoed Takeyh's op-ed by calling for the Obama administration to consult more closely with Congress during the negotiations. The letter also suggested that Iran would have to resolve issues of "human rights, terrorism, ballistic missile development" before Congress will approve sanctions relief. The Inter Press Service reported that the statement would strengthen "hardliners in Tehran who argue that Washington simply cannot be trusted."[19]

Takeyh and other fellow JINSA Iran task force members (including Stephen Rademaker), have called for increasing "pressure" on Iran during the negotiations. In a July 2014 JINSA report on the nuclear talks, Takeyh and his co-authors called for an increase in aggressive U.S. actions against Iran such as "more public threats of a military response" and more public tests of US 'bunker buster' weaponry like the Massive Ordinance Penetrator (MOP)."[20]

Commented Derek Davison on Lobelog: "When Ray Takeyh of the Council on Foreign Relations talks about the importance of increasing pressure on Iran while 'giving them a way out,' it's not quite clear how that differs from what has already happened up until this point." Davison continued, "Either the Iran hawks aren't getting the hang of this 'negotiating' thing or they consider 'pressuring' Iran the end, not the means."[21]

Contradictory Positions

Takeyh has at times been inconsistent in his analyses of Iran. One analyst attributes the frequent turnarounds in Takeyh's views to an apparent desire to "align himself with 'centrist' foreign policy hawks in the Democratic Party's national security establishment."[22]

For example, Takeyh and his wife Suzanne Maloney argued in a chapter they wrote for a 2008 book that any diplomatic efforts towards Iran should be directed at Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, not President Ahmadinejad, as the Iranian government was a "unitary actor" with Khamenei being the "ultimate power center."[23]

However, in a 2011 New York Times op-ed titled "Ahmadinejad's Fall, America's Loss", Maloney and Takeyh seemingly changed their minds about Iran's government being politically monolithic with a powerless president. The couple alleged that then Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was being "sidelined by religious fundamentalists," a development they argued would diminish "the prospect of a nuclear deal between Tehran and Washington."[24]

"For a politician with delusions of his own grandeur, the idea of high-profile negotiations with Washington offered an opportunity to strut on the world stage as the champion of a new, anti-American world order," the two wrote of Ahmadinejad.[25]

The pretext for their evolving view of the Iranian state, as they two writers made clear by the end of their article, was to push the United States to abandon diplomacy and increase pressure on Iran as a result of the—now apparently diplomatic—Ahmadinejad being supposedly sidelined.[26]

"To prevail in this conflict, Washington must abandon any expectation that Tehran can be seduced or coerced to the negotiating table. … American policy should seek to maximize financial and technological constraints on the Iranian nuclear program, strengthen Iran's opposition, exacerbate the many fissures within its political class and insulate Iran's neighbors from its nefarious activities."[27]

State Department

Takeyh served briefly in the State Department as senior adviser on Iran to Dennis Ross, who was then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's special adviser for the Persian Gulf and Southwest Asia. Ross, who has strong neoconservative ties, brought on Takeyh as an adviser in April 2009.[28] However, Takeyh's tenure at the State Department proved to be extremely short-lived. When Ross was promoted to the National Security Council in August 2009, Takeyh did not join him but instead returned to the Council on Foreign Relations.[29]

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Sources

[1] Nima Shirazi, "The Talented Mr. Takeyh," Antiwar, February 7, 2013, http://original.antiwar.com/nima-shirazi/2013/02/06/the-talented-mr-takeyh/.

[2] Eric Edelman et al, "Iran remains America's biggest challenge," The Washington Post, September 18, 2014,http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2014/09/18/f786fd1c-3f56-11e4-9587-5dafd96295f0_story.html?wpisrc=nl_politics&wpmm=1.

[3] Eric Edelman et al, "Iran remains America's biggest challenge," The Washington Post, September 18, 2014,http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2014/09/18/f786fd1c-3f56-11e4-9587-5dafd96295f0_story.html?wpisrc=nl_politics&wpmm=1.

[4] JINSA, "The Gemunder Center Iran Task Force," http://www.jinsa.org/gemunder-center-iran-task-force.

[5] Freedom House, "Press Release: Freedom House and Progressive Policy Institute announce Iran Strategy Task Force," March 30, 2011, http://freedomhouse.org/template.cfm?page=70&release=1377.

[6] Freedom House, "Press Release: Freedom House and Progressive Policy Institute announce Iran Strategy Task Force," March 30, 2011, http://freedomhouse.org/template.cfm?page=70&release=1377.

[7] Council of Foreign Relations, "Ray Takeyh," http://www.cfr.org/experts/democratization-elections-ethnicity-minorities-and-national-identity/ray-takeyh/b9599.

[8] Ray Takeyh, "The March toward a nuclear Iran," The Washington Post, August 3, 2011,http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-march-toward-a-nuclear-iran/2011/07/29/gIQAFcypsI_story.html.

[9] Ray Takeyh, "The March toward a nuclear Iran," The Washington Post, August 3, 2011,http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-march-toward-a-nuclear-iran/2011/07/29/gIQAFcypsI_story.html.

[10] Philip Giraldi, "Feeding the Frency over Iran," The American Conservative, February 19, 2012,http://www.theamericanconservative.com/feeding-the-frenzy-over-iran/.

[11] Philip Giraldi, "Feeding the Frency over Iran," The American Conservative, February 19, 2012,http://www.theamericanconservative.com/feeding-the-frenzy-over-iran/.

[12] Kenneth Pollack and Ray Takeyh, "Doubling Down on Iran," The Washington Quarterly, Fall 2011,http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/articles/2011/9/09%20iran%20pollack%20takeyh/09_iran_pollack_takeyh.pdf.

[13] Kenneth Pollack and Ray Takeyh, "Doubling Down on Iran," The Washington Quarterly, Fall 2011,http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/articles/2011/9/09%20iran%20pollack%20takeyh/09_iran_pollack_takeyh.pdf.

[14] Stephen Walt, "Slippery when Read," Foreign Policy, September 30, 2011,http://www.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/30/slippery_when_read.

[15] Ray Takeyh, "What Really Happened in Iran," Foreign Affairs, July/August 2014,http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141527/ray-takeyh/what-really-happened-in-iran.

[16] Ali Gharib, "Takeyh's History Lesson: Mossadegh and 1953," LobeLog, August 18, 2010, http://www.lobelog.com/takeyhs-history-lesson-mossadegh-and-1953/.

[17] Eric Edelman et al, "White House should seek congressional endorsement for any Iran deal," The Washington Post, May 23, 2014, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/white-house-should-seek-congressional-endorsement-for-any-iran-deal/2014/05/23/2f3dd3d2-e130-11e3-9743-bb9b59cde7b9_story.html.

[18] Paul Pillar, "Congress and Attempts to Kill the Iran Deal," National Interest, May 29, 2014, http://nationalinterest.org/blog/paul-pillar/congress-attempts-kill-the-iran-deal-10569.

[19] Jim Lobe, "Spoiler Alert: Iran Hawks Take Wing Against Nuclear Deal," LobeLog, July 11, 2014, http://www.lobelog.com/spoiler-alert-iran-hawks-take-wing-against-nuclear-deal/.

[20] Dereck Davison, "Neocons Agree: Pressure Iran Forever," LobeLog, July 30, 2014, http://www.lobelog.com/neocons-agree-pressure-iran-forever/.

[21] Dereck Davison, "Neocons Agree: Pressure Iran Forever," LobeLog, July 30, 2014, http://www.lobelog.com/neocons-agree-pressure-iran-forever/.

[22] Nima Shirazi, "The Talented Mr. Takeyh," Antiwar, February 7, 2013, http://original.antiwar.com/nima-shirazi/2013/02/06/the-talented-mr-takeyh/.

[23] Suzanne Maloney and Ray Takeyh, "Pathway to Coexistence: A New U.S. Policy toward Iran," Brookings, December 2008,http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2008/12/iran-maloney.

[24] Suzanne Maloney and Ray Takeyh, "Ahmadinejad's Fall, America's Loss," The New York Times, June 15, 2011,http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/16/opinion/16Takeyh-Maloney.html?_r=2.

[25] Suzanne Maloney and Ray Takeyh, "Ahmadinejad's Fall, America's Loss," The New York Times, June 15, 2011,http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/16/opinion/16Takeyh-Maloney.html?_r=2.

[26] Suzanne Maloney and Ray Takeyh, "Ahmadinejad's Fall, America's Loss," The New York Times, June 15, 2011,http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/16/opinion/16Takeyh-Maloney.html?_r=2.

[27] Suzanne Maloney and Ray Takeyh, "Ahmadinejad's Fall, America's Loss," The New York Times, June 15, 2011,http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/16/opinion/16Takeyh-Maloney.html?_r=2.

[28] Laura Rozen, "Ross Staffs Up," Foreign Policy, http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/03/30/ross_staffs_up.

[29] Laura Rozen, "Obama administration anticipated Iran talks response," Foreign Policy, September 1, 2009,https://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/09/01/obama_administration_anticipated_iran_talks_offer_response.

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Ray Takeyh Résumé

    Affiliations

    • Council on Foreign Relations: Senior Fellow
    • Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs: Iran Task Force, member
    • Iran Strategy Task Force: Cofounder
    • Washington Institute for Near East Policy: Fellow
    • Georgetown University: Adjunct professor

    Government

    • State Department: Former Senior Adviser

    Education

    • Oxford University: Phd

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