Ilan Berman

Berman is blurbed on the CPD website: "The fight against terrorism is the defining struggle of the 21st century. It is a conflict that will take many forms, and be waged on many fronts. But success is imperative; at stake is nothing less than our way of life."

A frequent invitee to congressional sessions covering Middle East and terrorism issues, Berman consistently advocates an expansive U.S. intervention in the Middle East, though he argues the United States should be cautious about militarily intervention in places like Iran. In mid-March 2007 testimony for the House Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation, and Trade, Berman argued: "Today, policymakers, experts, and analysts have focused their attentions on what are essentially three options. Some have come to believe that the optimal way to deal with the Iranian regime's runaway nuclear ambitions is to reach some sort of negotiated accommodation. Others have concluded that Iran's atomic effort constitutes a casus belli that warrants the use of force. Still others believe the ascendance of a nuclear or nuclear-ready Iran represents a benign, even beneficial, turn of events, and that no action at all is needed. None of these approaches, however, amount to a serious strategy."

Regarding the argument that the United States should seek to broker a "grand bargain" with Tehran, Berman argued that one of the main "dangers of dialogue" was demographics. By seeking to reach a deal with the current regime, he said, the United States risks alienating a younger generation of Iranians, pointing to the fact that two-thirds of the population are under 35. He said: "In the next 5-10 years, irrespective of what transpires on the nuclear front, the current leadership will give way to a new ruling order—one that is, at the very least, more predisposed to partnership with the United States and the West than the country's current rulers. Given these realities, a 'grand bargain' with the current leadership could well yield tactical, short-term benefits, but the long-term costs would be enormous: the alienation of Iran's young, pro-Western population, a vibrant constituency that will ultimately determine the political disposition of that country."

Instead, Berman argued that Washington needs to "think creatively" about designing a new approach to Iran that would combine several core elements: improved intelligence; a diplomatic approach strengthened by working closely with China and Russia; improved counterproliferation programs aimed at making sure Tehran does not share weapons technology with other states or non-state actors and keeping it from importing technology it does not have; bolstering economic sanctions; improved "outreach" efforts to Iranian citizens by providing "concrete, sustained evidence of support for the urge for freedom that is visible today on the Iranian 'street.'"

He concluded: "The stakes are enormous; without a serious plan to blunt Iran's nuclear ambitions, the United States in the near future will indeed be faced with just three choices: capitulation, confrontation, or marginalization. For now, however, there is still time to prevent American interests in the Middle East from becoming the victim of Iran's successes. It is my sincere hope that the U.S. government uses it wisely."

The issues Berman addressed in his March 2007 testimony were variations on themes he has focused on for years. At an October 2005 briefing for the House Subcommittee on the Middle East and Central Asia, for example, Berman argued: "The fundamental problem facing the United States is that Iran's 'nuclear clock' is ticking much faster than its 'regime change clock.' Altering that equation—both through initiatives that delay and derail Iran's nuclear ambitions and through those that empower opposition forces inside and outside of the Islamic Republic—should be the starting point for any serious American strategy."

On September 28, 2006, Berman was part of a chorus of hawkish pro-Israel specialists who debriefed the House Subcommittee on International Terrorism and Nonproliferation on the regional and international threat posed by Hezbollah. Describing the purported "worldwide threat" posed by Hezbollah, Berman (who was joined by Christopher Hamilton of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and Eitan Azani, the former head of intelligence in the Lebanon Division of the Israel Defense Forces) argued: "The war on terror so far has done nothing to diminish Hezbollah's international stature. To the contrary, over the past five years Iran has deepened its assistance to the Shiite militia, enabling the group to commence a landmark strategic expansion." Berman concluded that U.S. policymakers would do "well to remember the dictum of Hezbollah's spiritual leader, Hassan Nasrallah: 'Death to America is not a slogan. Death to America is a policy, a strategy, and a vision.'"

Berman is also a frequent writer and media pundit, contributing articles to the Wall Street Journal and Financial Times, appearing on radio and television programs, and authoring books on the Middle East and terrorism. He is the author of Tehran Rising: Iran's Challenge to the United States (Rowman & Littlefield, 2005) and coeditor, with J. Michael Waller, of Dismantling Tyranny: Transitioning beyond Totalitarian Regimes (Rowman & Littlefield, 2005). In marketing Tehran Rising, the publisher claimed that Berman was "crystal clear" about one thing: "Washington is woefully unprepared to deal with [the] mounting peril" posed by Iran.

In a September 26, 2006, commentary for the Wall Street Journal, Berman argued that Iran's economy "is deeply susceptible to foreign pressure on at least three fronts:" its "centralized economic hierarchy" and its dependence on foreign investment as well as foreign gasoline. "... A comprehensive gas embargo on the Islamic Republic could quickly wreak havoc on Iran's industrial sectors—and, potentially, galvanize serious social unrest on the Iranian streets as well," Berman argued. But by attempting multilateral diplomacy to resolve the Iran situation, the Bush administration is supposedly "courting disaster."

Berman is, according to his AFPC bio, an "expert on regional security in the Middle East, Central Asia, and the Russian Federation; he has consulted for both the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency and the U.S. Department of Defense, and provided assistance on foreign policy and national security issues to a range of governmental agencies and congressional offices."

Berman is a former research associate of the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs and is an associated faculty member of Missouri State University.

Government Service

Education

Middle East Forum, Experts List, http://www.meforum.org/experts.php.

Testimony of Ilan Berman, "The Iranian Nuclear Crisis: Latest Developments and Next Steps," House Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation, and Trade, March 15, 2007.

Testimony of Ilan Berman, "U.S. Foreign Policy Challenges Posed By Iran," Briefing before the House International Relations Committee Subcommittee on the Middle East and Central Asia, October 18, 2005.

Institute for Counter-Terrorism, Biography of Eitan Azani, http://www.ictconference.org/apage/6725.php.

Testimony of Ilan Berman, House Subcommittee on International Terrorism and Nonproliferation, and Subcommittee on the Middle East and Central Asia, "Hezbollah: Made in Tehran," September 28, 2006.

Ilan Berman, "An Economic Coalition of the Willing," Wall Street Journal, September 26, 2006.

Hearings and Meetings of the U.S. House of Representatives Subcommittee on International Terrorism and Nonproliferation, and Subcommittee on the Middle East and Central Asia, 109th Congress, 2nd Session, http://wwwc.house.gov/international_relations/itnhear.htm.

American Foreign Policy Council, Bio of Ilan Berman, http://www.afpc.org/berman.shtml.

American University Alumni page, Ilan Berman, http://www.wcl.american.edu/admiss/jdma/experiences.cfm.

Missouri State University, Defense and Strategic Studies, Associated Faculty page, http://www.missouristate.edu/dss/22308.htm.

For media inquiries, email rightweb@publiceye.org or call (617) 666-5300.