Right Web

Tracking militarists’ efforts to influence U.S. foreign policy

Iranians Losing Confidence in U.S. Compliance with JCPOA

Polls Indicate that Iranian public is losing confidence that the United States will abide by the terms of the landmark nuclear deal.

Print Friendly

LobeLog

The Iranian public is losing confidence that the United States will abide by the terms of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), according to the latest in a series of polls undertaken by the Center for International and Security Studies (CISSM) at the University of Maryland.

The new poll, the first taken by CISSM since last month’s parliamentary elections, found widespread and broad-based support for President Hassan Rouhani. Sixty-three percent of respondents said that they voted for candidates who support Rouhani, while only 22% said that they voted for his critics.

The survey was conducted among a representative sample of 1,005 Iranians contacted by telephone between March 3 and March 13. It followed an earlier poll conducted February 15-24 on the eve of the first round of election. The telephone calls, which included some 30 questions, were placed from Toronto. They both had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2%.

Perhaps the most worrisome finding was a decline in enthusiasm for the JCPOA and in public confidence that Washington will live up to its commitments. Although overall approval of the JCPOA remains strong at 71%, the percentage of respondents who said that they “strongly” approved of the deal has fallen steadily from a high of 43% in August (a few weeks after the JCPOA between the P5+1 and Iran was concluded) to 27% in the latest survey.

Confidence that the U.S. will abide by the deal has also slipped—from 45% in a September survey by the Gallup organizations to 29%, according to CISSM. Although 41% of respondents said in September that they were either “not very” or “not at all” confident about Washington’s compliance, the new poll found that figure had risen to 66%. The pollsters did not probe the reasons for the increase in skepticism, although it may relate either to the continuing imposition of sanctions as well as coverage of the election campaign here.

Nonetheless, both the decline in support for the JCPOA and the skepticism about U.S. compliance may account for a decline in enthusiasm for Rouhani, according to CISSM. Although his favorability rating remains extraordinarily high—84% in the current poll—those respondents who say they have a “very favorable” view of the president have fallen from 61% last August to 40% this month.

This decline may also be related to views of the economy, according to CISSM’s analysis. In a poll taken last May, 54% agreed with the proposition that the country’s economic situation was good. Only 46% say that now. At the same time, 52% are optimistic that the economy is improving, as opposed to a third who said it is it is getting worse.

Consistent with Rouhani’s view, a large majority (64%) said that they favored increasing economic engagement with western countries. That included 54% of self-described critics of Rouhani. Nonetheless, a larger number (58%) continue to put a higher priority on achieving economic self-sufficiency—a quest repeatedly stressed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—than increasing trade with other countries, which is seen as a priority by only 36% of Iranians.

Many of the questions directed at respondents were designed to probe their identification with various political tendencies that will be represented in the new parliament. Sixty-eight percent of respondents said that they actually cast ballots in the election.

As expected, support for Rouhani was concentrated mainly among those who voted for Reformist and independent candidates, although 50% of respondents who voted for candidates from the conservative Principlist group said that they supported the president. Thirty-three percent of respondents said that they voted for candidates they believed were Reformist, 35% said that they voted for those they believed were Principlists, and 24% said that they voted for independents.

Sixty-one percent of pro-Principlist voters, 81% of pro-Reformist voters, and 71% of voters for independents said that they supported the JCPOA.

As to the election itself, 44% said that they considered it “very free and fair,” while another 39% said that they were “somewhat” free and fair. Asked about their satisfaction with the range of candidates they were able to vote for— the Guardian Council disqualified about 45% of the 12,000 candidates who filed to run for office—31% said that they were “very satisfied,” 39% said they were “somewhat satisfied,” and 17% expressed dissatisfaction.

The survey found majority support for Iran’s increasing its assistance to groups fighting the Islamic State (63%) and to the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (51%). The poll also found strong support (86.5%) for collaborating with other countries to end the civil war in Syria, although only 46% said that they approved of Iran’s collaborating with the U.S. in helping the Iraqi government in fighting the Islamic State. In August, 58% favored such cooperation.

Share RightWeb

Featured Profiles

Mike Pompeo (R-KS) is a conservative Republican congressman who was voted into office as part of the “tea party” surge in 2011 and nominated by Donald Trump to be director of the CIA.


Although better known for his domestic platform promoting “limited” government, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) has expressed strong sympathies for projecting U.S. military power abroad.


James “Mad Dog” Mattis is a retired U.S Marine Corps general and combat veteran who served as commander of U.S. Central Command during 2010-2013 before being removed by the Obama administration reportedly because of differences over Iran policy.


Sen. Mark Kirk (R-IL) was one of Congress’s staunchest foreign policy hawks and a “pro-Israel” hardliner.


A self-styled terrorism “expert” who claims that the killing of Osama bin Laden strengthened Al Qaeda, former right-wing Lebanese militia member Walid Phares wildly claims that the Obama administration gave the Muslim Brotherhood “the green light” to sideline secular Egyptians.


Weekly Standard editor and PNAC cofounder Bill Kristol is a longtime neoconservative activist and Washington political operative.


Kelly Ayotte was a Republican senator from New Hampshire who is close to right-wing and neoconservative factions.


For media inquiries,
email rightwebproject@gmail.com

From the Wires

Print Friendly

Spurred by anti-internationalist sentiment among conservative Republicans in Congress and the Trump administration, the US is headed for a new confrontation with the UN over who decides how much the US should pay for peacekeeping.


Print Friendly

Decent developments in the Trump administration indicate that the neoconservatives, at one point on the margins of Washington’s new power alignments, are now on the ascendent?


Print Friendly

As the end of Donald Trump’s first 100 days as president approaches, it seems that his version of an “America-first” foreign policy is in effect a military-first policy aimed at achieving global hegemony, which means it’s a potential doomsday machine.


Print Friendly

Hopeful that Donald Trump may actually be their kind of guy, neoconservatives are full of praise for the cruise-missile strike against Syria and are pressing for more.


Print Friendly

Steve Bannon’s removal from the NSC’s Principals Committee doesn’t mean that he’s gone from the White House or no longer exerts a powerful influence on Trump. His office is still located very close to the Oval Office, and there’s nothing to indicate that his dark and messianic worldview has changed.


Print Friendly

Promoting sanctions that could undermine the Iran nuclear deal, pushing security assistance for Israel, combatting BDS, and more.


Print Friendly

Contrary to some wishful thinking following the Trump administration’s decision to “put Iran on notice” and seemingly restore U.S.-Saudi ties, there are little signs of apprehension in Tehran.


RightWeb
share